Forecasting is not about choosing the right door (Pexels.com)

All of Life is a Wager

Overcoming Cognitive Biases and Becoming a Super Forecaster

If you want to learn about cognitive biases all humans share, you might start with Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, or the paper he wrote in 1974 with friend and colleague Amos Tversky, ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’. There are solid summaries here on Medium, too.